In the next five years, the development of China's refining industry will face enormous challenges. The first is environmental issues: economic growth has shifted from high-speed to medium-high speed, marketization of refined oil has accelerated, product export space has been squeezed, domestic demand has slowed down, diesel-to-gas ratio has declined, quality upgrades and environmental protection requirements have continued to increase. The second is the industry problem: the production capacity is severely overcapacity, the internal competition is intensifying, and the external gap is large. The development of the domestic refining industry in the “13th Five-Year Plan” should be market-oriented and profit-oriented, transforming the development model, adjusting the industrial structure, promoting green and low-carbon, and comprehensively improving the overall competitiveness of the industry.
First, the industry competitiveness needs to be improved
1. Overcapacity pressure increases
In recent years, China's refining capacity has grown rapidly, but the average size of refineries is still too small, far below the world average. From 2000 to 2014, China's refining capacity increased from 278 million tons to 756 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 7.4%, much higher than the average global refining capacity growth rate (about 1.0%).
In 2014, the number of refineries in the country reached 241, and the average size of refineries was 3.14 million tons. Among them, the average size of PetroChina, Sinopec and CNOOC Huizhou refineries reached 7.7 million tons, higher than the world average (according to the US Oil and Gas Journal statistics, the average size of the world refinery in 2014 was 6.84 million tons).
In 2014, domestic oil demand was about 520 million tons, and crude oil processing volume was 503 million tons. Compared with the processing capacity of 756 million tons, the overcapacity situation is very serious.
In recent years, due to the rapid growth of domestic refining capacity, the load rate of primary processing equipment of crude oil has shown a downward trend. In 2014, the national average was only 66.5%. Among them, the average load rate of the main units such as Sinopec, PetroChina and CNOOC Huizhou Refinery is about 85% (if the comprehensive supporting capacity is calculated, the load rate is above 90%); while the average load rate of other refineries is only about 35%, lower than The main unit is more than 50%.
2. The trend of diversification of market entities is obvious
At present, Sinopec and PetroChina are still the main strengths of China's refining industry. At the same time, large state-owned enterprises such as CNOOC, China National Chemical Corporation, Yanchang Group, Northern Weapon Industry Group, and China Sinochem have joined, and some private enterprises have become larger. The refining industry has shown a trend of diversification.
In 2014, the total processing capacity of Shandong's refining industry reached 130 million tons (including refineries joint ventures with state-owned enterprises such as China's chemical industry), but the polarization of geochemical refining is obvious. The first category is enterprises with strong strength, large scale and certain comparative advantages. These enterprises continue to expand their scale and improve the processing level. The refining equipments are fully equipped. In addition to catalysis and coking, there are also gasoline and diesel hydrogenation. , methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), gas, reforming, polypropylene, sulfur recovery and other devices, the quality of refined oil can basically reach the national standard. At the same time, such enterprises have improved the level of resource security through cooperation with central enterprises. The other category is some enterprises that do not have advantages. Most of them are ground refinings with a scale of less than 1 million tons. Generally, they only have decompression and viscosity reduction. Even catalytic and coking units are very rare. The main products of these refining products are generally non-standard. Diesel and high-sulfur residual oil are facing elimination.
3. There is a gap between profitability and foreign advanced level
Using the same price system, in 2014, the performance of domestic major refining companies compared with foreign counterparts, the domestic business profitability (total capital return) is still different from the leaders in Asia Pacific and North America (see Figure 2). In the processing cost, the domestic labor cost is obviously high, and the operation cycle is not long. In terms of product quality, the low quality of diesel fuel is more prominent. In terms of environmental protection, the problem of corporate emissions is urgently needed.
The competitiveness of domestic refining enterprises is lower than that of foreign advanced refineries. The main reasons include the following aspects.
(1) The gap between refining structure and foreign countries
In 2014, the average size of refineries in the country was 3.14 million tons, and the average size of the main refineries was 7.7 million tons. However, compared with South Korea and Shell (24.7 million tons, 9 million tons respectively), the average size of domestic refineries is small, and there are many small-scale refineries, and the scale benefits cannot be reflected. The ratio of residue hydrogenation and coking capacity of China's main refinery is only about 0.3, and the proportion of residue hydrogenation is low. In Japan's refineries and Formosa Plastics refining units, the ratio of residual hydrogenation to coking capacity is 4.1; there is only one set of small coking in Korean refining units, and the ratio of residual hydrogenation to coking capacity is as high as 20.8. If the residual hydrogenation capacity is low, the yield of high value-added products will be low, and the output of low-value coke will be high.
Domestic main refinery catalytic reforming + MTBE + alkylation and other high-octane gasoline components production capacity accounted for about 10% of the crude oil processing capacity, while the world average of about 13%, so the domestic high-octane gasoline group The points are relatively low, especially not to meet the rapidly growing demand for gasoline in recent years.
Some domestic refineries have higher hydrogen costs. In 2014, the cost of hydrogen production from naphtha in China was as high as 20,000 yuan/ton, the cost of hydrogen production from dry gas in refinery was 16,000 yuan/ton, the cost of hydrogen from coal was about 12,000 yuan, and the price of hydrogen from aromatics was 8500 yuan/ton. about. It can be seen that the cost of hydrogen in refineries using naphtha and dry gas to produce hydrogen in China is relatively high.
(2) Long-term losses lead to huge debt pressure
In the high oil price period in previous years, due to the fact that the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism was not in line with international standards, the normalization of refinery losses led to high asset-liability ratios (average 60% to 70%), poor financial structure and poor profitability. The shortage of funds also makes the investment in the refining sector long-term controlled. On the one hand, it has caused a lot of bad debts for safety and environmental protection, and the development foundation of the refining business is not solid. On the other hand, the structural optimization and adjustment investment is relatively insufficient, and the operation optimization is restricted. To solve this problem, we need to explore new ways to optimize asset structure.
(3) Increased pressure on energy conservation, environmental protection, quality upgrade, and increased production costs
With the increase in people's awareness of safety, the requirements for safe production have become more stringent, and the pressure on production and operation of enterprises has further increased. Moreover, with the development of the city, most of the refinery enterprises that were far away from the city center have been surrounded by residential areas. The original production and operation layout has to adapt to the urban construction requirements after entering, and the enterprises are forced to carry out corresponding rectification, and some enterprises even face great The pressure of relocation. With the gradual advancement of oil quality upgrades, refining companies need to undergo an upgrade cycle every three to four years, and the frequency is gradually accelerated. The above requirements have resulted in higher requirements for investment intensity and production arrangements, as well as increased refining processing costs.
(4) The current product structure does not match the market demand.
China's refinery product structure and market demand have large deviations, mainly reflected in the tight production capacity of gasoline and jet fuel, and excess diesel production capacity. In particular, the consumption of diesel fuel in the future will drop significantly, and will be lower than 1.2:1 by 2020. In 2014, the ratio of domestically produced diesel to steam is 1.6:1. The gap is large. Refining development must adapt to changes in the market and structural adjustment must be made. .
(5) There is a big gap between technical and economic indicators
Despite the continuous improvement of the technical level of China's refining industry, the gap with foreign countries has gradually narrowed, but there is still a big gap. The foreign advanced refining level light oil yield exceeds 85%, and the advanced energy consumption level is lower than 40 kg standard oil/ton crude oil. The average yield of light oil in China's main refinery reached 76%~78%, and the average energy consumption of crude oil processing was reduced to 58-60 kg standard oil/ton crude oil; but the light oil yield of small refinery was less than 60%, crude oil processing The energy consumption exceeds 80 kilograms of standard oil per ton of crude oil, and the gap between the small refineries and the advanced level in terms of resource utilization efficiency, energy consumption, and three-waste emissions is more obvious.
Second, structural adjustment is imperative
China's refining scale is second only to the United States, ranking second in the world. Refining technology has made great progress after years of development. From the perspective of development strategy, the domestic refining industry has entered a mature stage. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, China faces changes in the economic environment, policy environment, market environment, and the pressure of environmental protection and quality upgrading. The development of the refining industry should be market-oriented and profit-oriented, transforming the development model and adjusting the industrial structure. Promote green and low carbon and comprehensively improve the overall competitiveness of the industry.
1. Adapt to environmental changes and change development patterns
First of all, it is necessary to move from the extensive expansion of scale expansion and investment to the intensive development of upgrading and upgrading by means of structural adjustment and technological transformation. Secondly, in response to the situation of excess refinery production, combined with relevant national policies, in accordance with the idea of “supporting a batch, integrating a batch, transforming a batch, and eliminating a batch”, we will control refining through the “development of advanced production capacity and elimination of backward production capacity”. The total size does not increase. In addition, in the face of the expectation that the refined oil export market in the Asia-Pacific region will be squeezed, the development of the domestic refining industry should not follow the development model of “big-in, big-out, two-outside”. Domestic crude oil processing is mainly to meet the domestic transportation and chemical development. Demand, a small amount of imports and exports to adjust the difference between the market and the demand structure.
2. Adjust refinery structure and achieve industrial upgrading
Crude oil cost is the main factor affecting the total cost of refining companies. Adjusting the raw material structure is very important for refineries. On the one hand, companies are required to purchase suitable crude oil at a lower price; on the other hand, they must use facilities such as terminals and pipelines to build a crude oil blending system to stabilize production and reduce costs. At the same time, comprehensively co-ordinate crude oil resources, further improve the processing capacity of inferior crude oil; introduce various low-cost raw materials such as coal, methanol, natural gas and ethane to improve the adaptability of raw materials in refineries.
Adjusting the structure of the device is an important means of adjusting the product structure, and is also a necessary condition for adapting to market changes and quality upgrades. During the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” period, the combined process route of high-slag catalysis or residue hydrogenation + catalytic cracking should be used to adjust the structure of heavy oil processing for enterprises with large delayed coking ratio; the use of refinery ether carbon four resources and pumice Brain oil isomerically separated to increase the production capacity of gasoline components such as alkylation and isomerization; expand hydrogenation capacity, catalyze diesel conversion capacity, increase the proportion of diesel fuel, increase the capacity of light hydrocarbon recovery, and build low-cost hydrogen production Device.
To enhance competitiveness in the refining industry, we must take the route of adjusting the structure of enterprises and differentiated development. For enterprises with obvious location advantages, good resource availability, large equipment optimization potential, and good market environment, accelerate the structural adjustment, improve the industrial chain, and continue to be better and stronger; for the environmentally restricted development areas, or regional refined oil demand Enterprises with limited increments will basically maintain the existing scale, and focus on implementing structural adjustment and upgrading measures; for small-scale enterprises that are constrained by resources and have narrow living space, consider transformation, including the development of non-oil products such as chemical business and logistics business. .
3. Coal oil integration, enhancing resource utilization
In recent years, modern coal chemical industry has made great progress in coal-to-hydrogen production, coal-to-liquids, coal-to-olefins, coal-based aromatics, coal-to-glycols, coal-to-gas and integrated gasification combined cycle power generation systems (IGCC). It is an important measure to effectively increase the added value of the coal industry and reduce the cost of petrochemical industry by supplementing the traditional petrochemical industry with coal chemical industry and organically combining it to carry out integrated development of kerosene.
For large-scale integrated enterprises, it is necessary to introduce the concept of “molecular refining”, refine management, make full use of various resources, and improve the ability of enterprises to resist risks and save profits.
First, the use of saturated dry gas resources: construction of a saturated dry gas recovery unit, recovery of H2 and C2+-rich products in dry gas, reducing hydrogen costs and ethylene raw material costs. Second, the utilization of saturated liquefied gas resources: timely implementation of saturated liquefied gas isomerization separation, propane as a raw material for ethylene cracking or external sale, normal carbon four as a raw material for ethylene cracking, isobutane as a product for sale. Third, the utilization of unsaturated liquefied gas resources: the use of catalytic ether carbon four resources, the construction of alkylation units, improve the structure of the gasoline pool, increase gasoline production, reduce the ratio of diesel to steam. Fourth, the utilization of naphtha resources: According to the nature of the components, the processing flow is reasonably arranged, so that “oil should be oil, Yifang is aromatic, and it should be ene.” Fifth, rationally arrange the wax oil processing route: the integrated enterprise is reasonably inclined to the direction of the chemical raw materials, and the heavy naphtha and the tail oil are increased by hydrocracking.
4. Promote green technology and improve product quality
The refining industry is not only a major energy producer, but also a major energy consumer and a major emitter. Achieving low-carbon green recycling is an important task that the refining industry must face. First, we must strengthen the “green and low-carbon” development strategy, focus on promoting green development, circular development, and low-carbon development, and develop and apply high-efficiency, low-consumption, low-emission green production processes to reduce energy resource consumption and pollutants from the source. The second is to intensify technological transformation and equipment renewal, speed up the elimination of backward production capacity, improve the efficiency of resource and energy utilization, and achieve clean production. Third, use green low-carbon energy, strengthen pollutant control, and promote pollution prevention to source prevention and process control. We will work hard to build a resource-saving and environment-friendly enterprise. It mainly includes the following methods: 1Select clean production process, such as residue hydrogenation instead of coking route; 2 Improve sulfur recovery, build power boiler and catalytic cracking desulfurization, denitrification and dust removal; 3 Strengthen oil and gas recovery, reduce unorganized emissions; Centralized treatment, centralized discharge, etc.
The focus of gasoline upgrades is to catalyze the deep desulfurization of gasoline and increase the production of high-octane components. Focus on accelerating deep hydrodesulfurization, adsorption desulfurization, catalytic reforming, aromatics extraction, methyl tert-butyl ether desulfurization and other equipment construction, as well as alkylation, isomerization, light gasoline etherification and other devices. The focus of diesel upgrades is deep hydrodesulfurization and upgrading. Focus on accelerating the construction of diesel hydrotreating, diesel hydro-upgrading, hydrocracking, slag (wax) oil hydrogenation and other equipment. In addition, by optimizing the refinery processing process, giving full play to the potential of existing plants, and taking into account regional optimization, it is also possible to achieve low-cost quality upgrades of gasoline and diesel.
5. Strengthen safety and environmental protection, and achieve social and enterprise harmony
In the process of economic and urban expansion and development, a group of refining enterprises that have been away from the city in the past have become enterprises in the city. The protection distance between enterprises and residential areas has been shrinking, forming a pattern in which enterprises are surrounded by cities. The survival and development of refineries face enormous difficulties, and the safety, cleanliness and environmental protection of enterprises are imminent.
Control environmentally sensitive pollutants, waste water, waste water, waste residue, noise and odor, so that pollutants are not leaked is the basic point of environmental protection. The specific measures for the construction of “safe, reliable, clean and environmentally friendly refining and chemical enterprises” include: implementing an indicator system that is stricter than the current national and local standards and achievable, and achieving world-class levels; adhering to the principle of “source management”, carrying out new construction and expansion Project planning and process technology selection; ensure equipment integrity and reliability; improve safety management and evaluation system to achieve risk control; effectively strengthen employee training and comprehensively improve staff quality.
In the future, refining companies should build a harmonious ecological park with the city, strive for external environmental safety and internal production safety, and coexist and develop together with the city.